With the passing of Pope Francis on April 21st, the Xavier community, Catholics, and non-Catholics around the world grieve the death of a man who lived selflessly for others. Pope Francis did not discriminate between rich and poor, sinner or saint, but sought to serve all those who need serving. He was a Pope for humanity, not just for Catholics. Pope Francis was a shining light in a world of darkness who commanded the papacy as one who lives by example.
He was a visionary and a progressive – always thinking towards the future. He helped to transform a Vatican in desperate need of an outsider. Pope Francis was not only an outsider by his messaging, but by his background as well.
Pope Francis and his legacy are so dear to the Xavier community in part because he was the first pope to be part of the Society of Jesus, taking a vow of poverty in his younger years. He was Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Buenos Aires before becoming the first pope to come from the Americas. As the first pope from a Jesuit College Preparatory school from the Americas, this papacy was close to home for the Xavier community.
Pope Francis no-doubt leaves a consequential legacy and some papal hopefuls are looking to build off of his work while others may be looking to roll back his progressive policies and messaging. Let’s take a look at ten potential candidates that may be the next to assume papal authority.
1: Cardinal Pietro Parolin
As the Vatican Secretary of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin is seen as a reliable, experienced, and moderate voice. This positions him at the top of this list and many others. He is Italian and soft-spoken, fitting in with 213 of the previous 266 Popes who have been Italian. His origin and prior roles within the Church, coupled with more traditional stances on key issues make him an attractive choice for many that thought that Pope Francis may have gone too far with his progressive views. Pietro Parolin’s rhetoric is highlighted by his highly critical stance on same-sex marriage, calling it “a defeat for humanity.”
Many pure traditionalists within the Church, however, resent his likelihood to support diplomatic rhetoric which could skew traditional Catholic dogma. In contrast, many supporters see the diplomatic approach as a strength and something that falls in line with Francis’ view of the Church being for the world rather than an isolated entity.
Parolin is a safe bet considering his current relationship and experience with the Vatican. But because many of the cardinals voting do not know each other and are from all different parts of the world, his papacy is not a foregone conclusion. Not to mention, Pope Francis was most certainly a dark horse at the time that he was chosen, not at all a frontrunner.
2: Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle
It would not be an overstatement to say that Tagle has a lot of hype and charisma behind him with many already describing him as “Francis 2.0.” He has many asking, could the next pope come from Asia? A people’s choice, Cardinal Tagle has been active in pastoral duties for decades as a cardinal that is very much active in the lives of his people. He has an outpouring of support from his native country—the Philippines—and that support may transcend borders and push him towards the frontrunner for the papacy.
He was also considered a contender in 2013 but circumstances are different now. With many parts of the world rapidly losing Catholic worshippers to Protestantism, specifically parts of Latin-America, the Philippines has emerged as a leading Catholic majority country. The Philippines boast a population that is about 80% practicing Catholic and has the third highest Catholic population of over 85 million worshippers, just above the United States.
Cardinal Tagle has a similar mission to Pope Francis of dedicating himself and the Church to poor and marginalized communities. He also has sympathized with migrants and refugees. In 2015, he called for the Church to reassess its “severe” stance towards gay people, divorcees, and single mothers, acknowledging that previous Church positions have harmed these individuals and made them feel isolated and not worthy of God’s Love.
Cardinal Tagle has long sought to find dignity within all people. Ultimately, Tagle would be seen as a reinforcement of Francis’s visions while still maintaining fundamentalist views on things like abortion. He has good chances, especially if the 5 members of the college of cardinals from the Philippines form a coalition behind his papacy.
3: Cardinal Peter Erdo
Peter Erdo may be serving as the head of the opposition movement to Francis’s vision of the Church. Most specifically on the issue of migration. As a survivor of communism growing up, the Hungarian native is beloved as the Archbishop of Budapest and has aligned with the conservative attitudes in Hungary. He is highly regarded in the Church throughout Europe and has been a prominent and authoritative figure for decades.
He is against the mass migration happening in Europe since 2015 and has compared taking in migrants to human trafficking. These positions are, however, more aligned with the Hungarian government than it was with Pope Francis’s opposing messaging. He is conservative on Church social issues as regards to abortion, divorce, LGBTQ, etc.
He is not, however, seen as an isolationist which might actually help his votes as he has a very good relationship with the Church in Africa and may be seen as a beacon of the social conservatism seen in the Church in Africa. Therefore, many may see Cardinal Erdo as a compromising candidate as even though he flaunts traditional social messaging, he can still keep Francis’s mission of creating a global Church and decentralized Church in check.
4: Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa
At 60 years old, Cardinal Pizzaballa brings the energy of relative youth to the conclave and potentially to the papacy. Given the high concentration of Italian popes, Cardinal Pizzaballa has a natural edge. He is very involved in Jerusalem and he is considered to have a high aptitude when it comes to discussing the conflict in Gaza.
However, given his relative youth and inexperience, it is likely that other Italians such as Cardinal Parolin might have the edge. Pizzaballa is seen as a conservative voice within the Church, as like Erdo—even if Pizzaballa’s rhetoric is lighter—he holds traditional Church views around the sacraments and doctrine teachings.
Similar to Francis, Pizzaballa believes in the promise of a globalized Church and is willing to be open to change. However, he would be a relief to many in the Vatican who are not thrilled with the rapid progressivism seen within the Church throughout the Francis-era. While there is a place for Cardinal Pizzaballa to become the next pope, he may also be considered too young.
5: Cardinal Matteo Zuppi
Many believe that if Pope Francis could have selected his successor, he would have chosen Cardinal Zuppi. The 69-year-old was made a Cardinal by Pope Francis in 2019 and has been sent around the globe ever since, including to Ukraine to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky. Cardinal Zuppi would continue Francis’s messaging about compassion for the poor and the vulnerable.
He falls in line with progressive Catholics who have been calling for more advocacy for LGBTQ people and specifically, LGBTQ Catholics. Cardinal Zuppi has long been an advocate of making the Church a safer space for LGBTQ individuals. In 2018, he wrote an essay in James Martin’s S.J. book Building a Bridge about how the Church needs to develop a new understanding in order to best serve “our LGBT brothers and sisters.”
He also met with President Joe Biden when he visited the United States. While Zuppi is definitely in contention, many times after a reformer like Francis, a traditionalist emerges and Zuppi would only continue in Francis’s direction and for that reason, his road to the chair of St. Peter is rocky.
6: Cardinal Leo Burke
Cardinal Burke is seen by many as President Trump’s personal favorite for the papal chair. Known as an outspoken strict traditionalist, the Wisconsin native Cardinal Burke was made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2010. He clashed with Pope Francis on many liberal philosophies.
He believes that many modern Church attitudes surrounding morality and social issues are abhorrent. His assent to the papal chair seems unlikely considering his outspoken viewpoints, his highly political rhetoric, and his American upbringing.
Having a pope from America would be interesting, but with the contentious political climate in America and the growing resentment of traditional religious values, it is unlikely that Cardinal Burke will become the next pope. Erdo is a much more likely conservative candidate, however Burke is the face of the American conservative movement in the Church and represents a lot of Catholics in America.
7: Cardinal Angelo Scola
Cardinal Angela Scola is seen by many as a safe choice for pope. He would be seen as a bridge as he is the oldest frontrunner for the papacy at 83 years old. He comes from a familiar Italian background and has been an ally of Pope Francis. Seen as a moderate, Scola could help bring some much needed stability to the Vatican while the Church attempts to coalesce on its future path.
However, since he is over 80 and will not be able to vote in the conclave, this stops him from setting up a coalition around him and could play to his detriment. While Scola would be the safest choice for pope, he could also end up being quite impactful. After all, the last time the Church went for the safe stop option was in 1958 when they elected Pope John XXIII and he turned out to be one of the most consequential popes in history. While his familiarity is appealing, his age may hold him back as a contender.
8: Cardinal Robert Sarah
Could the next pope come from Africa? Cardinal Sarah probably thinks so, and if the next Pope comes from Africa, he’s definitely the favorite. Hailing from Guinea in West Africa, Cardinal Sarah has become a prominent advocate of a hardlined traditionalist rhetoric for the Church to follow. It could be argued that out of all the frontrunners to the papacy, Sarah is the most conservative and traditional. He has strict social values when it comes to the LGBT community. He is a staunch advocate for priestly celibacy, advocating with Pope Benedict XVI to maintain those teachings.
He fully opposes abortion, contraception, euthanasia, and believes that “gender ideology” is threatening the family, as well as the fabric of the Church. Sarah is in favor of reversing many of the changes seen as a result of the Vatican II Council. He also has spoken out against what he believes to be mass migration. Ultimately, Cardinal Sarah thinks the Church has been heading in a dangerous direction and he wants to change it.
However, it seems that if he was elected pope, Cardinal Sarah would reverse all the progress that Pope Francis made towards making the Church an inviting space to all people.
9: Cardinal Peter Turkson
Cardinal Turkson follows Cardinal Sarah on the list of potential prospects from Africa. Cardinal Turkson is from Ghana and has been described as someone who holds traditional and fundamentalist views on religious teachings while holding more sympathetic social views than Sarah. Unlike Sarah, Turkson spoke out against same-sex criminalization in his country.
Also, he came under fire once in 2012 for showing a video that warned against the spread of Islam. He thinks that the Church could improve by “touching the heart” and says that evangelicalism has done a better job than that. He wants the Church experience to be less cerebral and procedural but more lively and exciting. His potential papacy has exploded in popularity as the conclave approaches, however, he faces similar challenges as Sarah on the fact that he has some hardlined traditionalist rhetoric in a Church that Francis has transformed.
Also, if the Church is ready for its first African pope in over a millenia remains to be seen. Although his popularity puts him on the list, it would be surprising if Cardinal Turkson became the next Pope.
10: Cardinal Timothy Dolan
Although he is considered a longshot, many in New York City would love to see Cardinal Dolan on the chair of St. Peter. Many know Cardinal Dolan for openly criticizing the Obama administration in 2012 for requiring that employers that offer health care also offer at least one form of contraception for their female employees. He said that this move efficiently forced many Catholic institutions to go against Church teaching.
He opposed the removal of confederate statues by stating that if we were to remove any statues that don’t honor saintly people, then we would only be left with Jesus Christ on the cross. Ultimately, Dolan is seen as someone who is involved in the modern and global Church. While holding some traditionalist positions, he has been open to change in the Church and Francis’s direction. Whether he assumes the papacy or not is unknown right now but Cardinal Dolan’s service to New York is greatly appreciated.
What Can We Expect?
Whenever a reformer like Pope Francis comes along, often a revisionist and redeemer follows. However, how big of a shift back from the reformer remains unclear. Right now Cardinal Parolin and Tagle lead as moderate candidates to replace Pope Francis, not diminishing his message, and in many ways following it, while at the same time, creating firm rhetoric on Church beliefs and viewpoints. It is also worth noting that the vast majority of popes in modern history have been Italian or at the very least, European.
Asia and Africa have not had a pope in over a millennium and the Americas have only had one pope, Francis. Therefore, the likelihood that it is an Italian is quite high. It would make sense for the Church to pick a safe option as a bridge candidate and that option likely will hail from Italy. However, if the Church truly wants to continue Pope Francis’s legacy and affirm a globalized Church, Cardinal Tagle would be the man for the job.
Ultimately, nobody really knows who the next pope is going to be until it is decided; despite this, it’s useful to understand who the top contenders are to inform our opinions about the likely successor of Pope Francis.
