Over the past decade, the Democratic Party has experienced great victories and defeats, from President Joseph R. Biden’s win over Donald J. Trump in 2020 to their loss in the recent 2024 election. Since launching his first campaign nearly a decade ago, President Trump has remained a defining force in American politics, energizing his base with his direct, combative style and populist messaging.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is struggling to recover from its recent defeat, due to their lacking a clear strategy and a unifying authority figure to challenge the current administration. If Democrats fail to revitalize their coalition and present a compelling alternative, their path into the future will be far more difficult.
The Root of the Problem: Why is the Democratic Party Struggling?
The Democratic Party’s stunning defeat in the 2024 presidential election exposed deep flaws in the party’s structure and leadership. President Biden’s triumphant victory in 2020 was fueled by a sole source: opposition to Trump’s first-term policy and behavior. Biden amassed a whopping 81 million votes, the largest total for any president in United States history, and in many ways, Democrats assumed that this momentum would carry over into the 2024 election.
However, many voters–especially in swing states–became disillusioned with the party due to economic stagnation, controversial cultural debates, and a lack of strong leadership. According to an NBC poll, this problem was displayed by the Democratic Party’s record-setting 27% approval rating.
Additionally, the party is divided between more traditional liberals and a growing progressive faction spearheaded by leaders like Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders, leaving Democrats without a clear message or unified vision. Without a strong identity, the Democrats risk further alienation from working-class and independent voters who were a primary factor in their loss last year.
The 2024 presidential election is a perfect example of the Democrats’ struggles to unify their party and adapt to MAGA-era politics. Exit polls show massive losses for the Democrats in key demographic areas that have defined the progressive party for decades.
The Democratic party lost a whopping 12% of the Latino vote, falling from 65% in the 2020 election to 53% in 2024. Many Latino voters turned to Trump and the GOP due to a lack of confidence in the economy and uncertainty over immigration.
Young voters aged 18-29 abandoned the Democratic Party, with 44% of the demographic voting for Trump. While not a majority, this marks a major uptick from the 2020 election. Divisions between younger and older Democrats have become a bigger issue over the past years, with studies showing younger voters are more focused on universal healthcare and college loan relief, whereas older voters lean towards more moderate policy. The complex demographic makeup of the Democratic Party and the lack of a clear vision have created a confounding enigma for the party to handle.
The Rise of the Squad: Future or False Prophet?
The “Squad” is a faction of the Democratic Party that has gained momentum in recent years, steadily growing and becoming a bigger force within the party. Many of the progressives within the group advocate for policies like “Medicare For All,” the Green New Deal, and higher taxes for the wealthy and corporations.
This movement has been spearheaded by well-known progressive leaders like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren, who argue that these policies benefit more Americans and will appeal to a younger and more diverse voter population.
A 2024 Gallup poll showed that 62% of Americans support a government-run healthcare system, indicating a recent shift in political priorities. The Squad’s popularity among younger voters could play a pivotal role in the Democratic Party’s future and possibly set the standard for policy and vision over the coming years.
Source: 2024 Poll from Gallup News
The Democratic Party is currently experiencing widespread internal division, specifically across age lines, regarding implementing Progressive policies. Younger members frequently advocate for dramatic, progressive changes, while moderates and elderly members voice concerns, particularly over increasing government spending and the potential alienation of centrist voters.
A separate threat to the Democratic Party is that they are losing popularity among moderates and independents, according to a 2024 survey by the Survey Center on American Life, which found that 66% of Americans now consider the party to be liberal or very liberal, up from 51% in 2014 (American Survey Center, 2024).
George McGovern’s 1972 presidential campaign serves as a cautionary tale from the past because his progressive program resulted in a crushing defeat for the Democrats, a possibility that alarms experts who fear that a similar change today would turn off mainstream voters. Additionally, The Washington Post cautions that Democrats who stray from centrist stances run the risk of losing their governing majority, especially in swing districts (Washington Post, 2024).
With only one-third of Americans believing Democrats serve their interests, the party is losing ground with its working-class constituents, even though progressive ideas may inspire younger voters (American Survey Center, 2024).
In the end, adopting progressive ideas might energize some Democratic constituents, but sustaining and growing the party’s coalition may require a more calculated strategy that strikes a balance between progressive advances and widespread electoral appeal.
Lessons from across the Aisle: What Dems can learn from the Success of Donald Trump
Donald Trump’s unprecedented success in the political landscape has certainly come as a shock to many. His ability to connect with voters through direct messaging, unapologetic rhetoric, and anti-establishment fervor has propelled him to the highest office in the United States. Unlike previous conservative candidates, Trump has approached elections as a populist, positioning himself as a champion of the working class, a figure who would save the American public from the dangers of “wokeness” and the “elite class.”
His success with working-class voters throughout the nation has reshaped the Republican Party and redefined the political status quo. According to a 2024 Washington Post exit poll, President Trump won over 55% of non-college-educated white voters and made significant gains among Latino and Black voters, displaying his ability to appeal to diverse demographics.
Source: 2024 exit poll by Washington Post
One of President Trump’s signature tactics throughout his political career has been using catchy phrases to simplify complex issues, such as reducing government spending, making them more personal to voters. Whether it be “America First,” “Drain the Swamp,” or “Make America Great Again,” President Trump’s slogans allow individuals to identify with more complicated issues that they otherwise may not understand or care about. These unifying messages also provide a slogan to rally around, serving to further centralize his support base.
On the contrary, Democrats have continued their policy of attempting to connect to voters using policy-oriented strategies that often fail to appeal to the emotions of their constituents. A 2023 Brookings Institution study found that voters respond more to candidates who present a clear, values-driven narrative rather than a list of policy proposals. While many debate the ethics of appealing to voters’ emotions rather than focusing on policy, it is undeniable that the future of political campaigns will likely revolve around identity politics and personality-driven movements that engage voters emotionally.
Looking to the Future: Who Can Lead the Democrats Forward?
The Democratic Party currently stands at a crossroads. With former President Biden being ousted from presidential contention by his party due to age and health uncertainty and former Vice President Harris failing to make significant inroads with voters, the Democrats are facing a leadership crisis of massive proportions. However, some leaders show promise of revitalizing the slumbering Democratic Party.
Hailing from the Hoosier State, “Mayor Pete” of South Bend has garnered significant attention for his distinctive political philosophy and emphasis on intellectual discourse. Pete Buttigieg served as Mayor of South Bend for over ten years before taking office as Secretary of Transportation under the Biden administration, giving him the necessary experience to take up the responsibility of the Oval Office.
His short-lived 2020 presidential campaign displayed flashes of brilliance, as despite being the first openly gay man to ever run for the office, he saw remarkable success, winning the Iowa primary before inevitably endorsing Joe Biden and dropping out of the race.
His unique ability to communicate effectively with people across the political spectrum makes him an appealing candidate to pave the path back to common decency and respect for the opposition. However, many progressives argue he is too moderate and will not do enough to counter the growing MAGA movement.
Josh Shapiro, the current governor of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, is a promising candidate who has displayed a pragmatic approach to unifying the Democratic party, specifically by embracing many progressive social policies while endorsing more moderate economic initiatives.
Before entering the field of politics, Shapiro was a highly touted lawyer, serving as the Pennsylvania district attorney for four years. The Quaker State, long regarded as a volatile swing state, has long been a challenge for politicians due to its extreme diversity of constituents. However, Shapiro, despite being a Jewish minority in Pennsylvania, has seen great success due to his charisma and ability to implement different ideas into his policy.
There was speculation leading up to the 2024 presidential election that he would be the Democratic nominee; however, ultimately, Kamala Harris was chosen for the job. Shapiro was considered a finalist for Harris’s running mate in 2024 and has maintained a visible presence in national politics. Recent polls show Shapiro with 7% support among likely Democratic voters.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris has remained a prominent figure in the Democratic Party despite her defeat to Donald Trump just a few months ago. Recent polls indicate she is still the leading contender for the 2028 nomination. An Echelon Insights poll conducted in February 2025 shows Harris with 36% support among likely Democratic voters.
However, many Democratic politicians and strategists have been vocal in their opposition to Harris, arguing that trotting out the same nominee yet again would end the same way, especially considering the amount of negative press coverage that surrounded her initial campaign. Democratic strategist Theryn Bond remarked, “[She] should not run for president again in 2028, please don’t.” That being said, Harris will remain the leading candidate for the foreseeable future, barring a situation where another candidate gains significant support.
New York City representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez continues to be a leading voice among progressive Democrats, heading the Squad. Her participation in Senator Bernie Sanders’ recent “Fight the Oligarchy” tour has further elevated her national profile, drawing large crowds and reviving interest in progressive causes.
Despite her prominence, Ocasio-Cortez remains non-committed to a presidential run, expressing contentment with her legislative role. Polling data reflects her influence, with surveys indicating 5% support among likely Democratic voters. To many voters, AOC’s ideas are radical and too far-left for them to feel comfortable swearing her in as President. While it is unlikely that her name appears on the ballot for president in 2028, her large presence on social media represents an effort by Democrats to modernize and appeal to younger voters once again.
Rising from the Ashes: Can the Democratic Party Change its Fortune?
The rise of the new progressive movement, spearheaded by the Squad, presents an opportunity for modernization and renewal, but also a significant risk of alienating key constituents. While progressive policies resonate with younger voters, they have yet to prove their ability to win over the broader population, specifically the working class and moderates.
At the same time, the party’s centrist wing has struggled to inspire enthusiasm, leading to low voter turnout and dissatisfaction among the base. Without a clear strategy, the party risks becoming politically stagnant, unable to effectively counter the seemingly guaranteed growth of Trumpism in the coming years. To return to glory and fend off MAGA, Democrats must refine their message, unify their coalition, and present a compelling alternative to Trump’s populism.
This will require strong leadership, a willingness to adapt, and a deep understanding of voter priorities. The 2028 election will be a defining moment for the party—whether it reinvents itself as a dynamic political force or continues to struggle in Trump’s shadow will depend on the choices made in the years ahead.
