After Israeli troops stood down in Gaza on January 19, 2025 when the cease-fire deal came into effect, Hamas orchestrated a demonstration, sending thousands of masked soldiers onto the streets in order to establish strength and control of the region. Hamas’ show of force indicated that the terrorist group remains the dominant power in the Gaza territory, belittling any other nation’s influence or power, including Israel’s.
After months of taking shelter in the Gaza tunnels from Israeli artillery, Hamas has deemed that it is safe for them to go above ground now that it is no longer under IDF (Israeli Defense Force) control. Ultimately, although they reached a cease-fire, Israel was not able to destroy Hamas or ignite an alternative movement before the ceasefire agreement.
Because Hamas has effectively re-established control of the territory, any aid of foreign government intervention in Gaza will have to be communicated with, and be approved by Hamas. This was a situation that Prime Minister Benjamin Nethanyahu and his coalition were focused on avoiding. Still, despite Hamas’ presence in Gaza, there is an open question on what the future of government in Gaza will look like.
Benjamin Netanyahu has faced pressure to make a plan for Gaza’s postwar governance, however, he has failed to do so thus far and there is no clear solution that will satisfy both Israel and Palestine. The Palestinian Authority, which is a political wing that oversees the West Bank, has said that it is ready to take control, however, Nethanyahu’s right-wing coalition is opposed to a two-state solution and does not want the Palestinian Authority involved.
It is possible to predict that under Nethanyahu’s administration, Hamas will only temporarily be in consolidation of power. Israeli Foreign Minister, Gideon Sa’ar, has said that the current situation is only a temporary ceasefire and that a permanent end to the war would require Hamas to eventually abdicate its power in later stages of the negotiating process.
Sa’ar firmly stated to the Wall Street Journal that, “There is no future of peace, stability and security for both sides if Hamas stays in power.” Although not all the details of the long-term plan have been laid out, Nethanyahu and Sa’ar have made it clear that the current Israeli administration will not allow Hamas to stay in power as a viable long-term option.
But for now, despite Israel’s preference, Hamas remains in power and they are orchestrating the ceasefire efforts and rules in Gaza. The ceasefire deal, mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the U.S., will require accountability from each to ensure its implementation. The deal is being actively implemented in different phases, starting with the exchange of some of the Israeli hostages for Palestinians that were convicted criminals in Israeli prisons. Later, talks are expected to shift towards an end to the broader conflict. The negotiation will likely be difficult and contentious, with the outcome still unclear; however, both sides will move forward in the short-term to affirm a ceasefire deal.
According to the Wall Street Journal, 87 of the 240 hostages that were abducted from the Nova Festival on October 7, 2023 remain in Gaza. Releasing those hostages is instrumental if there is any chance of a longer ceasefire deal. Out of those 87 people remaining in Gaza, Israel has officially confirmed 34 of them dead, however, many Israeli officials privately believe that number could be substantially higher.
The Israel-Gaza conflict is still tumultuous without a clear path in sight, but rather a long windy path with plenty of potholes. First and foremost, steps to a permanent end to the war must start with a temporary end and that is what the case is currently. Hamas’ achilles heel towards getting a ceasefire deal done will be that Israel is demanding hostages and they simply might not have enough. As stated, out of the 87 remaining hostages, 34 are confirmed dead and it is very likely that several more have died.
Israel is demanding Hamas to present 40 living hostages in the coming months which may or may not be mathematically feasible for Hamas. Israel, on the other hand, has its own challenges. Its biggest struggle will likely come from its internal politics. Many MP’s in the Israeli Parliament that are a part of Nethanyahu’s coalition do not support an end to the war until Hamas has been completely dismantled. With many believing in a one-state solution, how can longstanding peace be possible? Nonetheless, rather than debate endlessly over which approach to ending the war is better, the Israeli Government must work to find a clear approach and stick to it.