With Nikki Haley’s exit from the Republican presidential race on March 6th, it is nearly certain that we will be seeing a rematch of the 2020 election this November between President Biden and former President Trump. While many are weary of these two candidates, none of the alternatives in either party gained much—if any—traction in “dethroning” their respective opponents.
With the primaries practically over, both candidates have shifted their aim towards campaigning against each other; President Biden essentially kicked off his campaign with his annual State of the Union address, where he focused much of the fire on his predecessor, President Trump. The former President, meanwhile, had already begun campaigning in a manner more reminiscent of a general election, despite Governor Haley’s presence in the race.
A significant number of voters—enough to swing the election in either direction—have become increasingly fatigued by both candidates; whoever wins these voters, along with other independent voters, will be the next President of the United States. This election, according to polling, will be defined primarily by four issues which will either attract these voters or drive them away, those being: the economy, immigration, abortion rights, and age.
On the issue of the economy, Trump leads Biden by 20 percent in a recent NBC poll. While the unemployment rate is declining and approaching pre-pandemic levels and the stock market continues to soar, the average American is still not feeling much of the success of the economy. Also, while inflation has dropped from 8.2 percent in 2022 to 3.1 percent today, it is still considerably higher than the 1.4 percent of January 2021. President Biden’s campaign has coined the term “Bidenomics” to describe the success of his economic policies, but most aren’t buying it; instead, they are favoring President Trump by a margin that should be worrisome to the Biden campaign.
On immigration, the former President leads by over 30 percent, his largest lead on any issue. President Biden has maintained that the southern border is secure; Trump has juxtaposed this by repeatedly mentioning the “open borders policies” of his opponent. A failed bipartisan border bill that originated in the Senate was not brought to the House floor by Speaker Johnson, leading Biden to blame the border crisis on the Republicans. This messaging does not appear to be working, as the polling suggests Republicans are still leading on this issue.
The best issue for the Democrats is on the topic of abortion rights, with Biden leading by 9 points. Democrats have championed abortion rights, while the conservatives have pushed back, most notably in the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, sending the issue back to the states. The Democrats used this issue to stymie what was supposed to be, according to polls, a large Republican victory in the 2022 midterms. This issue still dominates for many voters, which can be bad news for Republicans nationwide, whose messaging on the issue has been murky.
Age and mental fitness have also become a major subject in the question of who should lead our country come January 2025. On this question, the former President leads the current President by 16 points. Many Americans have become concerned as both candidates are older than 75, although a large majority of Americans are more concerned about the current President’s age as a result of his consistent verbal slip-ups.
This election will be decided by the issues and the swing states, most notably those in the Midwest and the Sun Belt. In recent nationwide polls, President Trump leads President Biden by 2 to 4 points, and leads in all of the swing states except Pennsylvania, where Biden holds a slight edge of 0.8 percent. While the polls are a warning sign to the Biden campaign, it’s still very early into the election season and many factors can swing the election.
President Trump is still facing 4 criminal indictments, although it appears that only one of these cases will go to trial before the election, diminishing the possible damage a conviction could inflict on Trump’s campaign. Even after a criminal conviction of the former President, Biden leads by just two points, which is within the margin of error.
With the election still months away, many factors can still shake up the race, including independent candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who pulls roughly equal amounts of voters from both major candidates. As we approach the summer conventions of both parties, it’s become more apparent that the incumbent President is in for a rough race with his predecessor and opponent, but any number of factors can decide who is sworn in as President on the 20th of January, 2025.
